Summary:
- The 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 100 basis points since September, while the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 100 basis points over the same period, resulting in a historic divergence.
- This divergence is driven by the market's belief that the Fed's rate cuts will not be enough to combat high inflation, leading to expectations of further rate hikes in the future.
- The article suggests that the market's lack of confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation is causing the 10-year Treasury yield to rise, despite the central bank's efforts to stimulate the economy.