By Indradip Ghosh and Prerana BhatA resilient economy and historically low unemployment well over a year since the Fed began one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaigns in history has repeatedly confounded analysts and investors. "While the latest figures are encouraging, the real battle begins now, as the easy base effects are now behind us," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, referring to the fact inflation plunged so much in June partly because it was so elevated at the same time last year. recession within the next year, with 85% of them saying it would start at some point in 2023