The US Chip Blockade Against China Is Creating Unplanned Consequences

TL;DR

Graph 2: Semiconductor value added by activity and region in 2019 (%) About 75 percent of the world’s total semiconductor manufacturing capacity is located in Asia now, primarily in US allies like Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.The historic experience with industrial policy is largely underwhelming in the United States, and has been riddled with “performance underruns and cost overruns.” Countless failures of industrial policy can be found also in Latin America, the UK, Europe, and India, whereas the “successes” of countries like Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea appear to be exaggerated.For example, more than 80 percent of budget subsidies in Japan went into agriculture, forestry, and fisheries and very little went into R&D at the peak of Japan’s industrial policy efforts during 1955–80.Moreover, import protection seems to have decreased sectoral total factor productivity growth both in Japan and Korea because it made intermediate inputs more expensive and reduced domestic competition.In the case of semiconductors, the US government is coercing the rest of the US economy to subsidize an already highly profitable sector to undertake lower-value-added activities."

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